Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week ending November 8 at $74,968, 0.7% below its 50-week moving average. That ended a seven-week streak above the line, which Galaxy's Alex Thorn had linked to past bear market bottoms.
Attention now shifts to the June 28 weekly close of $59,517, the cycle's lowest. Twice before, a similar break below the average left the bear market low intact. This time, however, Bitcoin has less room above its low.
Bitcoin Slips Back Under Its 50-Week Moving Average
The 50-week moving average is the simple average of Bitcoin's last 50 weekly closes. According to Galaxy, Bitcoin reclaimed the average on September 20, 12 weeks after the June low.
From that $81,195 reclaim close, Bitcoin finished above the average for seven consecutive weeks. The November 8 close sits 7.7% below that level, though still 26% above the June low.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,031, down 0.86% over 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets. That leaves it about 0.6% under the average.
The weekly close also occurred during a weekend of forced liquidations across crypto, which hit long positions hardest. Galaxy's charts show that a reclaim made after a bottom has been lost before, though only twice.
The Last Two Cycles Lost the Line and Kept Their Low
Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, counted five post-bottom reclaims of the average since 2012, including September's. Of the four before it, the 2015 and 2023 reclaims held until Bitcoin regained its prior high. The other two gave way, yet both bear market lows survived.
Here is how those two breaks played out.
2011-12 cycle
Bitcoin reclaimed the line in January 2012 with a close 18% above it. It fell back below three weeks later and stayed there for 20 weeks. Its lowest close of $4.39 still sat 99% above the 2011 bear low. Bitcoin regained its prior high in February 2013.
2019-20 cycle
The May 2019 reclaim started from a 5.7% cushion and held for 29 weeks. Bitcoin then dipped below five times, the worst during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Its lowest close of $5,359 stayed 68% above the 2018 bear low. Bitcoin regained its prior high in December 2020.
In both cases, Bitcoin regained its prior high within two years of the reclaim.
Why Bitcoin's 2026 Cushion Looks Thinner
At its September reclaim, Bitcoin closed about 36% above its June low. In 2019, the reclaim close sat about 79% above the bear low, and in 2012 about 223% above.
By another measure, the current pullback has already gone further than in 2020. The November 8 close sat 7.7% below the reclaim close, compared with 6.5% at the 2020 low.
The 2012 retest fell 38.1% from its reclaim close. The same drop from $81,195 would take Bitcoin to roughly $50,260, below the June low.
Thorn, however, cautions that the size of the cushion has not reliably predicted outcomes. The 2012 reclaim failed from 18% above the line, while the 2015 reclaim held from 8%.
Galaxy's chart also flags two closes above the line in December 2021 and March 2022. Both came before that cycle's low, and a lower low followed.
Thorn's finding therefore covers only reclaims made after a Bitcoin bear market low. He also stressed how small the sample is.
"Caveat: 5 reclaims is the whole sample, and 'bottom in' is only known in hindsight. for 2026 it means $59,517 holding," he said.
What Bitcoin Needs to Keep the Bottom Call Alive
The first test is the next weekly close against the 50-week average, currently near $75,488. Below that sits the 200-week moving average at $67,746.
The June low of $59,517 is the level Thorn says must hold for the Bitcoin bottom call to stand. In the four completed bear markets on Galaxy's chart, no close after a post-bottom reclaim fell below the low.
