Crypto exchange Bitfinex warned on November 11 that bitcoin risked a deeper reset—a prolonged decline—after trading below its $75,717 short-term holder cost basis for four consecutive days. That level represents the estimated average acquisition price of coins held for fewer than 155 days.
Among 14 comparable episodes since 2016, bitcoin regained this threshold within two weeks in 11 cases; three took between 57 and 114 days. The current break began November 8, placing November 22 as the two-week checkpoint. Bitfinex stated that "rallies towards the short-term holder cost basis at $75,717 are likely to be sold until spot demand returns."
On November 11, bitcoin rebounded above $74,600 around 12:25 p.m. EST but eased to $74,157 by 5:35 p.m. EST, up 0.68% over 24 hours but down 7.15% over the week, 10.42% over the month, and 27.68% over the year.
Futures Pressure Intensifies
Aggregate futures open interest reached 701,900 BTC around the November 11 daily open, up 3.3% from November 8 while prices declined 2.6%. This divergence reinforced pressure in bitcoin derivatives markets, with Bitfinex warning that continued bullish positioning increased the risk of forced selling.
Approximately 1.6 million BTC purchased between $75,000 and $80,000 remained underwater, meaning worth less than its purchase price. These holdings could create selling pressure during price rebounds.
Mixed Corporate and Fund Flows
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds lost approximately $399 million on November 2. Corporate activity proved mixed: MicroStrategy Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) bought 1,036 BTC from November 2–8, while Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: MARA) disclosed selling 13,597 BTC over the previous six weeks.
Bitfinex calculated $2.22 billion in net outflows across eight sessions beginning October 30. Withdrawals subsequently slowed, with U.S. bitcoin ETF flows showing $201 million leaving on November 9 and $95 million on November 10.
Equity Market Imbalance
Bitfinex identified an imbalance in bitcoin's relationship with equities. Across 25 sessions following the Nasdaq 100's October 6 record, bitcoin captured 91% of its losses on down days but only 58% of its gains on up days.
Altcoin weakness extended pressure beyond bitcoin. Across 12 large altcoins on Bitfinex, the median decline from the September 21 close was 27.8%, compared with bitcoin's 14.8%. Bitfinex attributed the gap to concentrated leverage and speculative capital moving elsewhere.
Conditional Downside Scenario
For the November 13 options expiration, Bitfinex expected bitcoin to trade within a $71,600–$75,800 range. The exchange identified a conditional scenario that could trigger liquidations: a 10-year real Treasury yield above 2.8% or a Nasdaq 100 decline below 26,606. Under those conditions, bitcoin could face pressure toward $70,000–$71,200.
