Bitcoin recovered to above $79,000 on Monday at the Wall Street open, gaining approximately 3% on the day as markets assessed conflicting signals regarding potential US-Iran conflict resolution.
US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that Iran seeks a deal "quickly and badly" and indicated the US would consider engagement. He later predicted oil prices would "drop like a rock" once military conflict with Iran concludes.
Oil prices retreated following Trump's comments, though WTI crude remained above $100 per barrel and Brent crude traded at $105 per barrel at the time of reporting. Disruptions to key Middle Eastern transit routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, continued to weigh on energy markets.
US equities initially gained but turned negative by midday, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% amid ongoing uncertainty over regional stability.
Fed Rate Decision in Focus
Market probability for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike climbed to 92.7%, up from 59.4% a week earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Fed is expected to announce its decision on Wednesday, with markets anticipating a hike to a target range of 3.75-4%.
Trading firm QCP Capital noted that risk assets had already priced in the 0.25% increase, suggesting volatility may remain contained. The focus has shifted to how Federal Reserve officials frame the rate decision and its implications for future policy direction.
Bitcoin Technical Levels
Bitcoin returned above its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,430 on Monday after initially closing below this key support level on Sunday. The technical level is considered significant for potential bull-market recovery momentum.
