Bitcoin has declined sharply in recent weeks, falling below $73,000 and entering a price range last seen during an August rally. The drop comes as U.S. inflation data and monetary policy signals create headwinds for risk assets like cryptocurrency.
The October headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, marking the third consecutive month of acceleration. Inflation pressures stem from elevated oil prices and import tariffs alongside strong consumer and business spending. On November 10, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike, shifting market focus from whether the Fed will hike to how large the December increase will be.
As a risk-sensitive asset, Bitcoin faces reduced capital inflows in this environment. Institutional selling has intensified, with 14 companies selling approximately 108,247 BTC in 2026 for roughly $8.08 billion. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have experienced outflows every trading day since November 5, totaling $1.484 billion over six trading days.
Price Levels and On-Chain Support
Bitcoin has fallen into a fair value gap on the weekly chart between $65,391 and $76,670, originally formed during the August rally. The midpoint of this range at $71,030 has been breached, and a weekly close below this level would signal bearish momentum. Liquidation data shows major liquidity clusters at $74,000 and $68,000 have been cleared, with the next significant pocket near $61,700.
On-chain metrics identify $64,000 to $65,000 as a critical support zone. This level coincides with the realized price of Bitcoin holders who purchased between three and six months ago, the liquidation heatmap, and the weekly imbalance. A break below $64,133—the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move to $87,395—would signal extended bearish pressure.
Parallels to March 2023
Technical analysis suggests current conditions resemble those from March 2023, when Bitcoin fell from $25,250 to $19,549 but remained within a bullish market phase. The adjusted MVRV metric, which combines short-term and long-term momentum indicators, indicates Bitcoin remains in a bull market regime despite the pullback.
Short-term holders now represent a larger portion of Bitcoin's supply than long-term holders, indicating increased price sensitivity to near-term swings. Recovery conditions would require Bitcoin to hold above the $65,000 zone, followed by reduced panic selling and potential capital inflows, particularly through ETF vehicles.
