Bitcoin investors holding unrealized losses are capping price gains at $87,700, while ETF inflows are strengthening support at $80,000, according to onchain analytics platform Glassnode.
2025 Buyers Create Resistance Zone
Glassnode research shows that the breakeven point for a cohort of newer Bitcoin holders is currently acting as resistance. Investors who bought BTC in the latter stages of 2025 have an aggregate cost basis of around $87,700.
The area immediately above $87,000 hosts several resistance levels, including the 2026 open at $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average at $87,165.
Since the start of the year, two groups of holders have kept BTC/USD from moving higher once price challenges their acquisition cost basis.
In November 2025, price lost the cost basis of investors with entries between six and 12 months prior, which sat at $94,000 at the time. When price attempted to break above the trendline at $97,100 in January 2026, it became resistance, triggering a rejection and sending price lower.
A similar resistance trendline is given by the cost basis of investors who bought BTC one to two years prior. This cohort slipped into aggregate loss in February of this year as price lost its cost basis of $76,900. In May, the cost basis halted a price rebound at just above $82,000.
In both cases, underwater buyers looking to exit at breakeven produced sell-side pressure that new demand could not match. Glassnode noted the extent of BTC price retracements after rejections from either cost basis.
“Bitcoin rose to the 6-12 month cost basis in January and then fell by more than a third. It met the 1-2 year cost basis in May and fell by about a quarter,” Glassnode said. “The 1-2 year holders also stepped up their selling into the rally at the start of October.”
The cost bases for the six-to-12-month cohort and one-to-two-year cohort are currently $87,700 and $99,500, respectively.
ETF Cost Basis Supports $80,000 Zone
Below current spot price, the cost basis of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds marks one of several support levels of interest around the $80,000 mark.
Glassnode calculates the spot ETF cost basis at $81,500, while Bitcoin’s true market mean — the cost basis for all BTC acquired on secondary markets — sits at $77,500. Below this, the breakeven point of Bitcoin’s short-term holders — wallet entities holding a given amount of BTC for up to six months without selling — lies at $74,600.
As an important psychological level, $80,000 now forms a magnet for bid liquidity across exchange order books.
“The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play,” Glassnode commented.
