Bitcoin recently dipped below the $80,000 threshold as robust US employment figures prompted markets to adjust expectations regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Current market projections place the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16 at approximately 60 percent.
According to the Bitfinex Alpha report, the United States added 162,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 percent. This strong labor market data indicates that the Fed faces less pressure to implement rapid rate cuts.
Impact on Treasury Yields and Bitcoin's Price Range
The positive jobs report pushed two-year US Treasury yields above 4.34 percent as market participants recalibrated expectations. Higher interest rates typically create headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin, as government bonds become relatively more attractive to investors.
Despite this macro pressure, Bitcoin has maintained a resilient trading range. The cryptocurrency reached $82,400 on September 3 before experiencing a pullback, subsequently trading between roughly $77,200 and $82,100. Furthermore, the asset remains about 42 percent above its July low, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows over the preceding week.
Upcoming Catalysts and Supply Metrics
Analysts at Bitfinex note that upcoming inflation reports will serve as a crucial test for Bitcoin, particularly regarding whether sustained ETF demand can persist in a high interest rate environment. Continued inflows into these investment vehicles could offset macroeconomic pressures if favorable conditions persist.
Additionally, Bitcoin faces potential selling pressure as more than 71 percent of its circulating supply is currently in profit. This figure approaches the historical average of 74.7 percent, a threshold historically associated with transitions between weaker and stronger market phases. Market participants continue to monitor whether the asset can secure a weekly close above $82,100 to reinforce its recovery.
