Bitcoin is trading at $75,865, down 0.41% on the day, within a tight range between $75,645 and $75,979, according to a technical analysis by Bitcoinist. The 0.4% daily range follows a week in which Bitcoin was pushed back to the critical $76,000 level amid an AI-driven sell-off. The cryptocurrency is down 3.2% over the past week and 7.2% over the past month.
Analyst Spots 4-Hour Bullish Checkmate Setup
Crypto trader Cheds Trading shared a bullish note on X, highlighting a potential bullish checkmate setup on Bitcoin's 4-hour chart. The chart shows a large red capitulation candle that erased the early-November rally, followed by a series of small-bodied candles moving sideways near the lower Bollinger Band. Selling momentum has faded, volume has dropped, and price has stopped making meaningful new lows. Such compression after a sharp flush often indicates sellers are running out of steam, and if buyers step in, the tight range can resolve with a sharp move to the upside.
Short-term indicators support this view. On the hourly chart, BTC's technical summary reads Buy, while technical indicators flash Strong Buy with seven buy signals against just one sell.
Bitcoin Reclaims Nine-Year Trendline
Part-Time Trader posted on X that Bitcoin has reclaimed a nine-year trendline he has been tracking for months, calling it one of the reasons he has now flipped bullish on crypto. The trendline connects Bitcoin's major cycle lows, including the 2018-2019 bottom, the March 2020 crash, and the late-2022 bear market low. Every time BTC has bounced off it, a major rally has followed.
The analyst's chart projects a fresh leg higher, with Bitcoin pushing toward new all-time highs. However, he was clear that he does not see it lasting forever. He expects the rally to ultimately disappoint, with altcoins outperforming and Bitcoin eventually collapsing when the global debt bubble pops. For now, holding above this long-term support line keeps the bullish structure intact.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Across Timeframes
The signals change depending on the timeframe. Short-term charts have turned bullish, while the daily chart still reflects last week's damage.
- 30 minutes: Strong Buy
- Hourly: Buy
- 5 hours: Strong Sell
- Daily: Strong Sell
- Weekly: Neutral
- Monthly: Neutral
On the hourly chart, the RSI sits at 49.4, in neutral territory, leaving room to run in either direction. The CCI at 109 and the Williams %R at -28 both flash buy signals. The Stochastic RSI has climbed to 80.4, which is overbought, and the MACD is still slightly negative at -32. The ADX at 21 confirms there is no strong trend in place yet, while the ATR at 153 points to low volatility. Compressed volatility like this usually comes before a big move.
Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
BTC is trading right on top of its short-term moving averages. The hourly 5, 10, and 20-period MAs all sit between $75,811 and $75,864, providing immediate support. The first hurdle overhead is the hourly 50-period EMA near $76,108. Above that, the 100 and 200-period MAs between $76,647 and $77,410 form the key resistance zone. A clean break above $77,400 would confirm Cheds' checkmate setup and open the door toward $78,500 and the $80,000 to $82,000 range.
On the downside, the classic pivot supports sit at $75,859, $75,756, and $75,696. A break below $75,000 would expose the $74,000 liquidity zone and put the nine-year trendline back in focus.
Bitcoin is still down 25.8% over the past year, and its 52-week range spans from $57,833 to $107,461. But it is also up 16.8% over the past three months, a reminder that the medium-term trend remains intact.
