The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday, holding the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. The bitcoin price showed some volatility around $81,000 following the decision.
Split Vote and Dissents
The decision passed 10-2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. It is the first time since 1992 that a Fed governor and a regional bank president have dissented together on the same side.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking after the vote, said politics played no role in the decision, days before the midterm elections. Warsh has said he does not favor forward guidance absent a crisis, leaving investors to interpret the data themselves.
Statement Changes and Policy Signal
The committee’s statement dropped earlier language about when a hike might support a return to 2% inflation, replacing it with a line saying more information will guide the policy stance. The Fed also described growth as strong, up from solid.
The signal points toward tightening. Fed funds futures and the Fed’s own dot plot lean toward a rate increase by December, with some pricing putting the odds near three in four. Inflation has been running hot, and the two dissenters are the officials who want to act on it.
Bitcoin Price Reaction
Bitcoin’s reaction was restrained. The price spiked to about $81,700 in the minutes after the announcement, fell below $80,500, and then recovered toward $81,000. Most traders expected a hold, so the muted move was unsurprising.
Bitcoin’s first response to Fed news tends to be modest, with the real direction often emerging over the following day. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $110 million in net inflows on October 26 and $176 million on October 27, a sign that some institutional money is buying the dip. Other observers have flagged large holders selling into strength.
That tension defines crypto’s position right now. Bitcoin sits about a third below its October 2025 record near $126,000. A rate-hike path works against an asset that has thrived on cheap money, and the market has spent months adjusting to the possibility that the easy-money era is over.
Some traders read the hold as evidence the Fed will move slowly. Others see December as the real test. For now, the level to watch is $80,000. It has held as support in recent sessions, and a clean break below it would expose the next floor.
Warsh and his colleagues have said they will wait for incoming data before acting. Bitcoin will have to wait along with everyone else.
Midterms Ahead
Bitcoin’s next big political test arrives on November 3, when voters across the country head to the polls. Crypto has not really dominated the campaign trail.
The crypto industry spent about $176 million on more than 100 midterm races to build a bipartisan bloc in Congress that could protect its interests after President Donald Trump left office. Fairshake, the industry’s largest super PAC, led the effort and directed strategy as it had in the 2024 cycle.
At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $81,478.
