Bitcoin is unlikely to surpass the $100,000 mark by the end of 2026, according to analysts from leading crypto firms, who cite competing investment options, further interest rate tightening, and the ongoing situation in Iran as key obstacles.
Uneven Recovery Forecast
Analysts expect an uneven recovery in the fourth quarter, with bitcoin projected to end 2026 between $85,000 and $92,000. Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, told the South China Morning Post that the worst of this year’s downturn is over, but the recovery will be uneven and led almost entirely by bitcoin.
“The worst of this year’s downturn is behind us, but the recovery will be uneven and led almost entirely by bitcoin,” Liu said.
Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Volatility
Liu identified the unresolved situation in Iran as “the single biggest swing factor for bitcoin this quarter.” She noted that increased oil price volatility has affected bitcoin, which has started to move inversely to oil. “Every de-escalation headline has lifted crypto, and every escalation has sold it off,” she said.
Fed Policy and Capital Costs
Another significant factor is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Angela Ang, APAC managing director at BitGo, said the risk of further tightening could weigh on sentiment. She explained that recent changes in the Consumer Price Index might prompt the Fed to raise rates again to rein in inflation. Additionally, high yields on lower-risk instruments such as U.S. Treasuries could dampen demand for bitcoin.
“The biggest constraint right now is the cost of capital. Investors can earn attractive yields on lower-risk instruments such as Treasuries, so crypto is competing for capital on harder terms this quarter,” Ang said.
Extreme Scenario
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone anticipates that a crash to $10,000 is possible if the U.S. stock market experiences a 20% drawdown, with U.S. Treasuries becoming far more attractive in that scenario.
Market Background
The crypto market has struggled to recover since bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Soon after, between October 10 and 11, 2025, the market experienced one of its largest crashes ever, with nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated and BTC hitting intraday lows of $105,000.
Bitcoin was recently trading just above $81,000. The price has remained below $100,000 for the entirety of 2026 so far, lingering under $90,000 since mid-January and briefly falling below $60,000 in June.
