Bitcoin's valuation metrics have triggered an alert following five consecutive sessions of net redemptions from US spot exchange-traded funds, totaling $1 billion through November 13. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported on November 15 that Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio (MVRV) had fallen below 1.2, marking the third such signal during the current market cycle.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values coins at the prices when they last moved on-chain. A ratio below 1.2 suggests lower valuation relative to historical cost basis, but this metric alone does not confirm whether new buying is absorbing coins being moved at a loss.
Bitcoin was trading at $65,461 as of November 15 according to CryptoSlate's snapshot. Darkfost had previously identified similar valuation alerts in February when Bitcoin crossed $60,000 and again in June to July when it reached $57,000.
Demand Signals Remain Unclear
A separate CryptoQuant analysis cited a spent output profit ratio (SOPR) near 0.98, indicating that measured on-chain outputs moved at an aggregate loss. However, the analysis did not specify the exact SOPR variant or timing, limiting direct comparisons with other readings.
ETF flows provide another demand indicator. Farside Investors recorded $185 million in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 13, capping the five-session redemption streak from November 9 through 13. These continuing redemptions suggest the ETF channel is withdrawing capital rather than supplying the recurring inflows that would support a recovery case.
What a Stronger Recovery Would Require
According to CryptoQuant analysis, a more convincing recovery signal would combine sustained profitability in on-chain transfers with renewed spot demand and ETF inflows. Continued loss realization paired with repeated ETF redemptions would weaken any interpretation that a bottom has formed.
Nvidia's scheduled earnings release on November 17 represents a near-term risk factor that could affect appetite for risk assets including Bitcoin. The test following those results will be whether spot buying and ETF inflows return alongside improving on-chain profitability metrics.
