Bitcoin's network participation has contracted sharply, with the total number of non-empty wallets declining by 30,000 since October 16, according to Santiment data. The figure now stands at nearly 59.95 million, marking a notable shift in holder behavior as the asset trades near $80,000.
The wallet decline reflects continued selling pressure from retail investors, yet some analysts view the trend as a potential contrarian signal. Santiment notes that this kind of retail capitulation can create more favorable conditions for recovery than sudden buying surges driven by retail enthusiasm.
Price confirmation remains critical for any bullish thesis. Bitcoin would need to hold the $80,000 level and reclaim around $82,500 to strengthen the case for a local bottom. A drop below $79,000 would weaken that outlook considerably.
Analyst Doctor Profit characterizes the recent downturn as a correction rather than the start of a new bear market. He identifies the $80,000 to $81,500 range as a potential major support zone, noting it aligns with average entry prices for Bitcoin treasury companies and spot ETF investors. Long-term holders who accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 appear reluctant to exit, while short-term holders continue selling.
Not all analysts are optimistic. Ali Martinez points to a historical pattern in which Bitcoin recorded losses during the fourth quarter of US midterm election years: a 16.7% decline in 2014, a 42.16% decline in 2018, and a 14.75% decline in 2022. If this pattern repeats in 2026, further downside remains possible before year end.
Institutional demand has shown mixed signals. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110.34 million in inflows on Monday, providing brief relief. However, October flows remain negative overall, with these funds posting more than $200 million in net outflows so far.
On the corporate acquisition front, Strive purchased 6,182 BTC for $511.4 million, raising its total holdings to approximately 43,000 BTC. The Smarter Web Company added 20 units to bring its treasury to 2,850 BTC. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's Strategy opted against additional Bitcoin purchases this period, choosing instead to increase share repurchases.
