Bitcoin whales are accumulating holdings before Wednesday's US inflation report, creating a divergence with recent institutional selling. According to CryptoQuant, large holders have increased their combined Bitcoin holdings to 3.03 million BTC, with accumulation accelerating to its fastest monthly pace since February.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $744.3 million in net outflows between October 5 and October 12. The heaviest selling occurred on October 7, when funds lost $484.9 million. However, inflows resumed on October 13, with $175.7 million in fresh capital entering the funds, reducing the seven-day net outflows to $568.6 million.
Whale Activity Signals Market Recovery
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which combines 10 on-chain and market indicators, climbed from 20 in late July to 90 on September 26, its strongest reading since December 2024. The index has since retreated to 80, a level CryptoQuant considers consistent with an emerging bull market.
Large Bitcoin-backed borrowers have increased activity, with borrowers holding loans exceeding $10 million raising their USDT borrowing by 83.3% in September, reversing a 9.2% contraction in July. In contrast, borrowers with loans below $100,000 reduced their total borrowing by 17.2%.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju described the divergence between large and smaller participants as consistent with early stages of market recovery, when major holders begin increasing exposure before broader demand returns.
Inflation Data to Test Market Confidence
Bitcoin trades near $83,000 ahead of the Consumer Price Index report. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% in September from 3.4% in August, with core inflation projected to edge up to 2.5% from 2.4%.
A stronger-than-expected reading could extend selling pressure already evident in Bitcoin's derivatives markets. Glassnode identified substantial buying interest around $81,000 to $81,250, with sellers concentrated around $85,000 to $85,500.
