Crypto asset manager Bitwise projected a $1.6 million Bitcoin price for 2036 in its updated outlook released October 28, significantly higher than forecasts based on lower return assumptions. The projection depends heavily on growth of the combined gold-and-Bitcoin market, which Bitwise assumes will expand from its current $31.1 trillion estimate to $109.8 trillion by 2036.
Bitwise's forecast assumes a 34.3% annual return on Bitcoin, contrasting sharply with JPMorgan's 10% compound return assumption introduced October 19. At the lower 10% annual return rate applied to Bitwise's September reference price of $83,557, Bitcoin would reach approximately $216,725 by 2036—roughly $1.4 million below Bitwise's base case.
The store-of-value market category accounts for approximately 82% of Bitwise's roughly $33.6 trillion valuation implied by its $1,599,766 target price. This dominant reliance on a single assumption raises questions about forecast resilience.
Market Size and Allocation Factors
Bitwise's valuation framework estimates the future size of markets Bitcoin could serve, assigns it a projected share of each market, and divides the combined value by 21 million coins. The firm assumes Bitcoin will capture 25% of the expanded store-of-value market, generating $27.45 trillion of Bitcoin value from this category alone.
Bitwise expects future institutional Bitcoin allocations between 1% and 5% and uses 27.8% as the midpoint between current and modeled 2036 volatility. JPMorgan reports a 55% annualized volatility alongside its 10% compound return assumption.
Contrasting Investment Perspectives
JPMorgan questions whether currency debasement will cause widespread adoption of crypto, citing Bitcoin's volatility and unstable correlations as obstacles to mainstream portfolio inclusion. The firm included Bitcoin in comparative analysis of how assets move together while keeping it outside its main portfolio models.
JPMorgan's analysis highlights why recognizing potential returns and making a strategic portfolio allocation remain separate decisions for institutional investors.
Range of Outcomes
Bitwise's projections span a wide range. The bear case targets $130,686, while the bull case reaches approximately $3.67 million. The previous outlook targeted $1.3 million by 2035, with the new report moving the forecast horizon forward one year.
Bitcoin traded near $81,070 as of the article's publication, with a market value of approximately $1.6 trillion.
