Bitwise Asset Management has revised its 10-year base-case price target for Bitcoin from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, according to its report on long-term capital market assumptions.
The revision reflects anticipated institutional rotation into Bitcoin, expanding addressable markets, and stabilizing market cycles over the next decade.
Market Addressable Markets
Bitwise identifies four primary markets for Bitcoin adoption: institutions, emerging market currencies, store of value applications, and offshore wealth.
The firm projects that global institutional assets will grow from approximately $140 trillion currently to $304 trillion by 2035. A 1% to 5% allocation from this pool would represent $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in potential Bitcoin purchases.
Price Scenarios
Based on a September Bitcoin price of $83,557, Bitwise calculates three scenarios for 2036:
- Base case: $1,599,766
- Bull case: $3,667,911
- Bear case: $130,686
The projections incorporate Bitcoin's historical compound annual growth rate of 34.3%, average volatility of 27.8%, and average correlation to US stocks of 0.43.
Key Risks
Bitwise identifies three major risks that could impact the cryptocurrency ecosystem. These include quantum computing developments that could potentially exploit vulnerabilities in Bitcoin's public-key cryptography, AI-driven mathematical advances that could bypass quantum computing entirely, and regulatory reversals that could affect institutional investor participation.
The firm also cautions that volatility will persist despite anticipated market maturation, noting that less conservative simulations show Bitcoin could reach prices exceeding $4 million by end of 2033 and $5.6 million by end of 2034.
