Bitwise Asset Management has raised its long-term Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, according to its updated Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions published on October 28, 2026. The report was authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen.
The new target implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate from Bitcoin’s current approximate price of $83,500. This is an upgrade from Bitwise’s previous forecast of $1.3 million by 2035, which equated to a 28.3% CAGR.
Basis for the projection
Bitwise’s thesis rests on three main arguments: Bitcoin’s limited supply, growing institutional adoption, and rising sovereign debt and currency debasement risks pushing investors toward hard assets. The firm frames the opportunity through the store-of-value market, defined as Bitcoin and gold combined, and expects Bitcoin to capture 25% of that market. Bitwise also projects Bitcoin to be the best-performing institutional asset over the next decade.
Volatility and correlation assumptions
Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin’s average volatility at 27.8% over the forecast period and expects volatility to decline. It projects Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks at 0.43, where 1 indicates perfect positive correlation and 0 indicates no correlation. On allocation, Bitwise expects institutional investors may put approximately 1% to 5% of their portfolios into Bitcoin.
Risks flagged
Bitwise identifies technological disruption as a top risk, pointing to quantum computing and AI as potential threats. Regulation is the other major concern, with the firm noting that regulatory changes could reverse current adoption trends.
Implications for investors
For institutional allocators, the 1% to 5% allocation range is designed to be digestible. For retail investors, the takeaway is more nuanced, as Bitwise is an asset manager with crypto products and thus has an interest in Bitcoin’s long-term success. The store-of-value framing is the assumption to watch most closely, as the entire model hinges on Bitcoin taking a quarter of a market it shares with gold. The flagged risks also deserve attention, with progress in quantum computing and any shift in the regulatory climate being the two variables most likely to break the model. The jump from a 28.3% to a 34.3% implied CAGR shows how sensitive these projections are to their starting point.
