Investment firm Bitwise has released a price target projecting Bitcoin at $1.6 million by 2036, approximately 19 times its current price. The projection depends heavily on Bitcoin capturing a meaningful share of the store-of-value market traditionally dominated by gold.
Bitwise's model uses a total addressable market approach, sizing opportunities across multiple sectors and applying penetration rates to Bitcoin's 21 million supply. The store-of-value market comprises roughly 82% of the projected 2036 value, making it the primary driver of the target.
Market Assumptions
The firm expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to expand from $31.1 trillion today to $109.8 trillion by 2036. Under Bitwise's base case, Bitcoin would claim 25% of that expanded pool. Currently, Bitcoin's circulating supply represents approximately 5% of the $31.1 trillion store-of-value market.
Six additional markets in the model—including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves—contribute only $6 trillion combined to the projection.
The Gold Connection
Bitwise highlights Bitcoin's strengthening correlation with gold as evidence of growing store-of-value recognition. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached 0.58 in mid-September. The model assumes this relationship will deepen, projecting a 0.21 correlation with gold over the next decade, up from a 10-year historical average of 0.11.
Downside Scenarios
Bitwise's bear case reduces Bitcoin's store-of-value market share to 2.5% while assuming zero penetration in other markets, yielding a 2036 price of $130,686—representing a 4.6% annual return. The firm identifies quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal as key risks to the thesis.
Bitwise's base case implies 34.3% annual returns, substantially above JPMorgan's 2036 Bitcoin scenarios, which project base-case returns of 10% annually.
