Two experienced analysts from Bloomberg declare their increased confidence over the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETFs being introduced in the United States this year.
They state that the recent court ruling puts the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in a position with minimal arguments to oppose the approval.
Bitcoin ETF Approval More Likely With Fewer SEC Obstacles
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, states in an X (formerly Twitter) post, that he and James Seyffart are now more confident about their prediction of spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining approval this year.
On August 29, the court ruled that the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF. Now the SEC must review the application again based on other factors. The ruling makes the Bloomberg analysts less certain that the SEC will be able to defeat Grayscale.
“[James Seyffart] and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot Bitcoin ETFs launching this [year].”
Balchunas highlighted that the recent court ruling, which exceeded their expectations, has boosted their prior forecast by 10%. This increased their confidence in proclaiming a higher likelihood of the Bitcoin ETF launching this year.
“While we factored Grayscale win into our [previous] 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC [with] very little wiggle room.”
Balchunas believes that the SEC will struggle to “justify further denials.” He attributes this to tighter deadlines approaching along with the increase of media attention surrounding the case.
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Speculation Mounts In The Industry
If Bitcoin ETFs do not launch this year, the pair are 95% certain it will happen by the end of 2024.
Several crypto influencers used social media to show their excitement over the recent court ruling.
Miles Deutscher stated that the decision “changes everything.” He warns his 356,000 followers that it is “time to pay attention again.”
Meanwhile, Ivan on Tech tells his 400,000 followers that the recent ruling can be interpreted as “Grayscale crushes SEC.” He further hints at a six-figure Bitcoin price in the near future.
Similarly, the host of the popular Bankless Show, Ryan Sean Adams alludes that a bull market might be on the way. “Resume the bull,” he states.
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