The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing trading activity on Kalshi's ether perpetual market, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal. The agency is examining whether to open an enforcement investigation into a pattern of nearly identical trades that has accumulated more than $5 billion in volume over the past month.
Data from Kalshi's public margin API shows the pattern continues. In a 24-hour period on Wednesday, the exchange processed 136,474 trades worth approximately $584 million. Over 73,200 of those trades—54% of all trades and 68% of the value—clustered around $5,426, with open interest at $6.6 million.
Since August, almost one million trades of nearly the same size have moved through the single market. In recent weeks, more than one-third of trades in the ether market consisted of rapid orders clustering at about $5,500.
Kalshi has characterized the trading pattern as normal market behavior. The exchange told the Journal that hundreds of distinct traders were involved and attributed the repeated trade sizes to market makers holding fixed resting orders that faster traders execute against. The company stated that self-trading is mechanically blocked, coordinated wash trading is prohibited and monitored, and its liquidity programs pay for orders held at set sizes and spreads rather than for volume alone.
Trading firms including Jump Trading and Wintermute were among those involved in the rapid trades, according to the Journal. Jump said it trades for profit, uses self-match prevention, and does not coordinate with other traders.
The pattern drew initial attention from a research analyst who raised concerns about the volume concentration in September. Kalshi's crypto lead responded that the critic had confused prediction-market data with perpetuals and noted that rebate programs are standard at major exchanges including CME Group, Hyperliquid, and Binance.
Kalshi launched crypto perpetuals on June 3, after the CFTC approved its bitcoin contract on May 29. The exchange cleared $5.5 billion in the first two weeks of the perpetuals market. No enforcement action has been announced as of this reporting.
