The CLARITY Act is advancing toward a key Senate procedural vote on September 15, but prediction markets are flashing doubt about whether Congress will ultimately pass the sprawling crypto market structure legislation.
The contrast in market expectations is stark. Kalshi traders price a Senate vote before October 1 at 91%, suggesting senators will show up to vote on the measure. However, Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act only a 13% chance of becoming law in 2026, down sharply from 82% odds in February, based on roughly $11.5 million in trading volume.
Analysts have grown increasingly pessimistic about passage prospects. Capital Alpha Partners cut its enactment estimate to 25% or possibly lower, warning that clearing a 60-vote cloture threshold would not guarantee final passage. Galaxy Digital slashed its estimate to 10% in August.
What the CLARITY Act Would Do
The legislation would establish a federal framework for crypto markets, granting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exclusive authority over spot digital commodity markets while leaving the Securities and Exchange Commission to oversee certain securities offerings and exchange activity.
Major Obstacles Blocking Agreement
Three contentious issues are threatening to fracture the coalition needed to reach 60 Senate votes:
- Ethics restrictions involving government officials and crypto holdings
- Stablecoin rewards that banks view as competition for deposits
- Protections covering decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers
Several Democrats who previously appeared open to negotiations have attacked the latest version of the bill. Banking groups continue opposing stablecoin provisions. Republicans including Senators Cynthia Lummis, Tim Scott, John Boozman, John Thune, and Thom Tillis remain among the legislation's strongest backers.
The Calendar Closing In
Even if the Senate clears the procedural hurdle on September 15, lawmakers face a crowded legislative calendar packed with government funding votes, defense legislation, and approaching midterm elections. Another failure could push the broader market structure debate into a lame-duck session or 2027.
Meanwhile, regulators are moving independently. The SEC and CFTC are advancing crypto rulemaking that could build major pieces of a regulatory framework without Congressional action, though future administrations can typically unwind agency rules more easily than federal statutes.
