The CLARITY Act's chances of becoming law climbed above 32% as Senate Republicans unveiled a final compromise before a scheduled cloture vote on Tuesday. Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the landmark crypto market-structure legislation being enacted in 2026 to its highest level since August 2 after Republicans released a 635-page final draft designed to resolve disputes that have held up the bill.
The revised version marks a turnaround from weeks of skepticism surrounding the legislation, though prediction-market pricing remains well below levels seen earlier in the year. The contract reached approximately 82% in February before political disputes over ethics, stablecoin rewards, and decentralized-finance protections complicated its path through the Senate.
The Tuesday vote
Senators are scheduled to vote on cloture for the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633, a procedural step requiring 60 votes that would allow the chamber to begin considering the legislation. If cloture is invoked, the final text would then be offered as a substitute amendment.
Republicans said the latest version incorporates 126 substantive changes Democrats requested after more than a year of negotiations. White House digital-assets adviser Patrick Witt characterized the revisions as evidence that Republicans had exhausted room for compromise.
Key changes in the revised bill
The most politically significant change concerns President Donald Trump and other federal officials with substantial crypto-related financial interests. Trump agreed to substantially all of an ethics proposal developed by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego. The framework would require covered officials with significant crypto interests to divest them or place them in a qualified blind trust, while giving state attorneys general a role in enforcing the restrictions.
Republicans also added a stablecoin circuit breaker intended to address concerns from community banks that crypto-based rewards could accelerate deposit flight. The measure would give the Treasury secretary authority to intervene if payment stablecoins were found to cause substantial withdrawals from community banks.
The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provisions were narrowed in the final version. Software developers would be protected from money-transmission registration requirements and granted a civil safe harbor, while broader protections that could have extended into criminal cases were pulled back.
Agriculture Committee provisions added restrictions around affiliate trading and conflicts of interest involving digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers. The legislation also preserves state consumer-protection laws and clarifies that protections for software developers do not override derivatives regulation or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's existing authority.
Path forward
Republicans presented the concessions as their final offer. Senator Cynthia Lummis said Democrats had received more than 120 of the changes they sought and argued that Tuesday's vote would determine whether senators were willing to proceed with legislation after those demands were addressed. Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott similarly indicated the negotiations had produced more than 100 Democratic-requested changes.
The increase in Polymarket odds suggests traders see the revised package as improving the bill's prospects. However, Tuesday's hurdle remains political rather than probabilistic, as Republicans need enough Democrats to join them to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold.
