Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has reiterated his expectation that Bitcoin will reach $400,000 by 2030, a target that would require the largest cryptocurrency to rally approximately 420% from around $76,930. This forecast comes as Bitcoin has declined 5.4% over the past week and trades roughly 39% below its October 2025 peak of over $126,000.
Armstrong outlined his reasoning during a CNBC interview, explaining that Bitcoin historically moves through four-year cycles characterized by run-ups, euphoria, and downturns. He noted that down periods typically last about a year, and the current decline has recently crossed that one-year threshold.
"Most of the down periods last about a year, and we have actually just come across the 1-year mark for this down period, so I personally believe that the bottom is in on BTC in its most recent cycle," Armstrong said.
Armstrong highlighted two key events he believes will influence Bitcoin's trajectory. The first is the CLARITY Act, which faces a procedural Senate vote on September 15. The second is the next Bitcoin halving, expected approximately 18 to 19 months away. He anticipates the typical pre-halving rally to occur before the event.
"I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin," he added.
Historical Halving Patterns
Analyst Jesse Myers observed that Bitcoin has exhibited significant rallies following previous halvings: approximately 100x after the 2012 halving, 30x after the 2016 halving, and 8x after the 2020 halving. If a similar pattern emerges in the current cycle, Myers suggested that the next 1.6 years could bring substantial gains for Bitcoin. Projections based on repeating the last cycle's pattern would carry Bitcoin from its $58,000 bottom to $232,000 by the April 2028 halving, then to $464,000 in the second half of 2029, exceeding Armstrong's $400,000 target.
Market Demand Concerns
However, these projections rest on assumptions about market participation. Current spot market demand appears muted, with the 90-day cumulative volume delta remaining neutral while futures traders have driven recent rebounds.
Institutional investment flows show mixed signals. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $986.9 million in the week ended September 4, extending a three-week period worth approximately $3.8 billion. The current week has recorded $166.9 million in net outflows, potentially threatening the recent positive streak.
