Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in September interviews that he believes Bitcoin has already reached its cycle low, though the cryptocurrency remains below a technical level historically associated with confirmed recoveries.
Armstrong expressed personal optimism for Bitcoin to trend higher over the next one to two years as the market approaches its next halving event. He called a $400,000 price target by 2030 reasonable, though he framed this as his personal view rather than an official Coinbase forecast.
At the time of his comments, Bitcoin was trading around $77,000, approximately 39% below its October 2025 record of $126,198.
The $81,000 Hurdle
The immediate technical test sits above $80,000, where Bitcoin has repeatedly faced resistance. Galaxy Research identified the 50-week moving average at $81,473 as a significant marker, noting that a weekly close above this level would strengthen the case that Bitcoin's bear market had ended.
Historical analysis shows that in four of Bitcoin's five completed bear markets, the first upside break of the 50-week average occurred after the cycle low was established. This pattern broadly supports the sequencing of Armstrong's forecast.
Recent Recovery Signals
Bitcoin climbed 25.4% in August, rising from $62,899 to $78,852. The largest weekly gain occurred during the week ended August 23, when Bitcoin increased 23.5%, marking its biggest weekly advance in dollar terms on record.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $3.4 billion in inflows during August, their strongest monthly performance since July 2025.
Galaxy attributed the rally to renewed demand for the debasement trade, policy developments, short liquidations, and momentum buying. However, analysts noted that short covering can accelerate rallies without establishing sustained demand, while momentum buying can reverse quickly if Bitcoin fails to extend gains.
The Longer-Term Cycle
Armstrong's $400,000 target assumes the rebound becomes much larger than a return to Bitcoin's previous record. At roughly $77,000, Bitcoin would need to climb more than fivefold to reach that price, placing it over three times above the October 2025 high.
Armstrong tied his optimism to Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle and the approach of the next halving, expected around 2028. This programmed event reduces the block subsidy paid to miners, tightening the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation.
The cryptocurrency currently faces resistance in the low-$80,000 to mid-$84,000 range. A sustained weekly close above the 50-week average would align Armstrong's bottom call with the pattern that followed most previous Bitcoin downturns. Another rejection would leave the market waiting longer for evidence that a new cycle has begun.
