Coinbase Senior Quantitative Strategist Colin Basco has identified mounting macroeconomic pressures threatening Bitcoin's near-term price stability. In a weekly market review, Basco flagged sticky inflation and an 80% probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike as key concerns for the asset.
Bitcoin has maintained the $80,000–$82,000 zone as support, underpinned by the convergence of the 50-day moving average and spot ETF cost basis. However, if this level breaks, Basco warned that $73,000–$75,000 represents the next critical support area.
Weakening Demand Structure
Bitcoin treasury demand has faded during the second half of 2024, leaving U.S. spot ETFs as the primary source of institutional buying interest. Even ETF flows have proven volatile, with the complex recording $635 million in net outflows on October 23rd—among the largest single-day outflows in recent months.
Crypto market liquidity, as measured by stablecoin supply changes, has declined by nearly $13 billion from its May peak. Coinbase's premium has remained negative throughout October, signaling limited buying pressure from retail investors outside of ETF channels.
Options Market and Institutional Hedging
In the options market, institutions have actively hedged downside risk. The 25-Delta Skew metric surged from 5% to 15% for one-day and one-week tenors, reflecting heightened demand for put options and downside protection, with $75,000 and $73,000 as key price levels of interest.
A heavy supply cluster of over 2.1 million BTC sits between $87,500 and $91,700, potentially acting as a barrier to any upward price reversal attempts.
Short-Term Concerns vs. Longer-Term Sentiment
Near-term fear has intensified ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision and amid renewed U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Over the past three months, however, the 25-Delta Skew made only a modest increase from 6% to 10%, suggesting that institutional traders view current macro and geopolitical risks as short-term pressures rather than prolonged headwinds.
