Corporate Bitcoin treasury purchases could accelerate toward the end of 2026 and into 2027 if the cryptocurrency rallies, though analysts expect a more selective approach than in previous cycles, according to market observers.
Treasury buying activity slowed markedly in the third quarter. Strategy's Bitcoin holdings increased by a net 1,666 BTC in Q3, down substantially from 83,901 BTC in Q2. Other public companies added a net 5,617 BTC compared with 45,725 BTC in the previous quarter, according to figures cited by Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen.
The slowdown reflects a fundamental shift in market dynamics. During the 2025 treasury boom, companies could raise capital by issuing shares at a premium to the value of their Bitcoin holdings, enabling them to acquire more Bitcoin without diluting shareholder exposure per share. As those premiums narrowed or disappeared, this financing model became less effective.
Selective Recovery Expected
If Bitcoin rallies and premiums return, purchases could resume. However, the recovery will likely look different from the 2025 boom. Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner stated that shareholders have become more discerning after previous losses, now evaluating treasury companies based on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline, and Bitcoin per share rather than broad enthusiasm.
Established treasury operators with strong track records and liquidity are expected to attract capital first if buying resumes. Smaller companies that entered during the 2025 boom have largely exited the space, with a dozen abandoning their strategies in Q3 by selling holdings to repay debt or return cash after premiums evaporated.
Most of the largest corporate Bitcoin buyers outside Strategy have been acquiring Bitcoin from cash flow generated by their operating businesses rather than issuing stock, representing a smaller but more sustainable source of demand.
Alternative Demand Sources
Corporate purchases remain one source of Bitcoin demand but not the only one. Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $6.4 billion in net inflows during Q3. However, recent flows show volatility, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing around $229 million in net outflows in their second consecutive week of withdrawals according to recent data.
ETF demand could sustain a Bitcoin recovery for a period, though some activity reflects basis trades that may unwind quickly. Without corporate buying providing a price-insensitive bid, the market becomes more dependent on allocators who adjust positions based on broader macroeconomic conditions.
