Ethereum's long-term investment case has weakened relative to Bitcoin, with ETH falling nearly 30% this year to around $1.5k and erasing all gains made throughout 2024 and 2025. The altcoin now trades nearly 10% lower than at the start of 2024, underscoring weak cycle-wide returns.
Bitcoin has been more resilient. After a 15% correction in 2026, BTC remains more than 75% higher than its 2024 starting point, representing a stronger long-term return on investment. The ETH/BTC ratio is down over 16% and is heading toward a fifth consecutive bearish annual candle, trading roughly 60% below its 2024 opening level.
Buterin's store-of-value thesis
Ethereum's investment thesis has for years centered on its deflationary model, lower gas fees, and token-burn mechanics, aiming to strengthen ETH's value proposition through reduced supply and increased network activity. ETH's continued underperformance relative to BTC raises questions about how well this supply-driven narrative is translating into price action. In this context, Vitalik Buterin's recent X post highlighting Ethereum as a store of value may be an attempt to shift ETH's investment thesis toward that of a long-term value asset.
On-chain data points to a reset
On-chain data shows ETH burns have declined by 98.8%, from $3.548 billion in 2022 to just $42.8 million in 2026. This reduces how much of the Ethereum supply is taken out of circulation, undermining the deflationary narrative and shifting emphasis toward demand. Ethereum may derive more of its long-term value from becoming a collateral asset rather than from supply reduction through token burns.
Recent whale activity adds another layer to ETH's outlook. According to Onchain Lens, a large holder withdrew 16,580 ETH from Binance. However, whale accumulation may not be enough to compensate for a lack of staking demand. According to ValidatorQueue, the amount of ETH waiting to be staked has been on a downtrend since peaking at 4 million ETH in February.
Collateral use case under pressure
With staking demand declining, Ethereum's collateral use case could also come under pressure. ETH acts as collateral for loans, DeFi positions, and overall financial activity within the ecosystem. A continued decrease in demand to hold and use ETH as collateral could put downward pressure on its long-term utility.
From this perspective, Buterin's latest post could be a key moment in reshaping Ethereum's long-term investment case against Bitcoin.
