Ethereum is trading near $2.5K following a sharp correction from the $2.7K resistance area. The asset remains above its daily 100-day and 200-day moving averages, though weakening momentum and recent on-chain activity suggest continued volatility ahead.
Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum's price recovered sharply from June lows near $1.5K, climbing through the $2K region and consolidating near $2.7K in recent weeks before sellers regained control in early October. The latest rejection from the $2.7K supply zone has pushed ETH back toward the $2.4K support area.
A modest rebound has emerged following the recent sell-off, though the recovery has not yet established a convincing bullish reversal. If support at $2.4K holds, Ethereum could attempt to recover toward the major $2.7K resistance zone, with a sustained breakout potentially reopening the path toward $3K.
A decisive daily close below $2.4K would break the ascending channel formed since the June lows. In that scenario, the next notable support area sits around $2K-$2.2K, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages have recently produced a bullish crossover.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to approximately 40, indicating weakening momentum and movement toward bearish territory. Although the indicator approaches oversold levels, it has not reached the conventional threshold below 30.
Shorter-Term Price Action
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum spent much of late September consolidating between approximately $2.6K and $2.8K before breaking lower aggressively earlier in the week. The sharp downside move accelerated as ETH lost the $2.6K level, driving price toward $2.4K.
Recent candles show a modest recovery toward $2.5K, suggesting buyers have stepped in around support. However, the rebound remains limited. Immediate resistance sits around $2.6K to $2.7K, where ETH must climb through the bearish imbalance formed during the decline. The 4-hour RSI has recovered from deeply oversold levels to approximately 40, indicating easing selling pressure but still-weak momentum below the neutral 50 level.
On-Chain Considerations
The exchange supply ratio, which measures the proportion of Ethereum's circulating supply held on centralized exchanges, declined from approximately 0.142 at the beginning of 2026 to 0.124 in September. This decline coincided with ETH's price recovery from summer lows toward $2.7K and suggests reduced exchange-held supply relative to total tracked supply.
More recently, however, the exchange supply ratio has rebounded from its lows. While the increase is modest compared with the earlier decline, it warrants monitoring. If the ratio continues to rise while ETH struggles below $2.7K, it could suggest a larger proportion of supply is returning to exchanges, potentially increasing available selling liquidity and creating downward price pressure in coming weeks.
