Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after dropping below the $2.4K support region and now trades around $2.45K. The recovery has brought the price back to the upper boundary of a key demand zone, though sustained buying strength remains uncertain.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference between ETH prices on Coinbase Pro and Binance, has fallen to its deepest negative reading in months. Negative readings indicate weaker demand from US-based buyers relative to other markets, suggesting that US spot purchases are not currently driving the market higher.
Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, Ethereum continues trading within an ascending channel that has guided its recovery from the June lows near $1.5K. The asset rallied from $1.9K in August toward $2.5K, then advanced into the $2.8K supply zone in late September before sellers defended that region.
The recent correction brought ETH into the $2.4K demand zone, which overlaps with the channel's rising lower boundary. Yesterday's price action briefly dipped toward approximately $2.3K before buyers intervened, with recent daily candles showing a recovery back above $2.4K.
If buyers defend this support, ETH could target the channel midpoint near $2.8K and the $2.8K-$3K supply zone where the September advance stalled. A decisive daily close below $2.3K would signal a breakdown from both the demand zone and the ascending channel, weakening the recovery structure. The next major support would then lie at the $1.9K order block, which marks the base of the August rally.
Four-Hour Structure
The 4-hour chart shows Ethereum trading within a broadening ascending structure since late August. After reaching the upper boundary near $2.8K in September, momentum faded and ETH consolidated between $2.6K and $2.8K before breaking down in early October.
The decline produced a series of lower highs, and the mid-October rebound stalled around $2.5K. The latest sell-off pushed ETH below the wedge's lower trendline through the $2.4K zone toward $2.3K, but the price quickly recovered back above both levels, suggesting the move may have been a liquidity sweep rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Holding above $2.4K would support stabilization and could open the way toward $2.6K. Clearing that barrier would interrupt the lower highs sequence and potentially bring $2.7K back into play. A 4-hour close beneath $2.3K would invalidate the recent recovery and expose ETH to further selling pressure.
US Demand Weakness
The Coinbase Premium Index remained largely positive between August and October 2025 when ETH traded above $4K. The metric turned persistently negative from November 2025 onward, coinciding with declines toward the $2K region in early 2026 and later to approximately $1.5K in June.
The index briefly returned to slightly positive territory in late August and early September during the rally toward $2.8K, but has since moved back into negative territory with recent readings near -0.1, the lowest level since summer. This indicates that US spot buyers are not currently leading the market, though price recovery could occur through offshore demand or derivatives activity.
A sustained negative premium while ETH struggles to reclaim $2.6K could renew pressure on the $2.4K support zone. Conversely, a recovery back toward zero would strengthen the case for a durable base.
