Ethereum's price action over the past 48 hours has been volatile, with nearly $300 million in long positions liquidated, according to CoinGlass. That is still smaller than the liquidity squeeze earlier in October, when almost $500 million of positions were liquidated as ETH broke below the $2.5k support level, triggering a 7% correction.
This time, despite the roughly $300 million in long liquidations, ETH has corrected by just over 1%, suggesting selling pressure remains relatively contained for now.
Whale opens $45M long
A trader who claims a perfect 100% win rate has opened another long trade on Ethereum, using 25x leverage to go long on 20,277 ETH for an investment of $45.3 million. The trade has already produced $252,000 in profit. The trader's previous 10 trades were all profitable, resulting in $6.32 million in realized gains.
Given that track record and ETH's limited downside despite heavy futures selling, the position could indicate that the trader is positioning ahead of a potential recovery that the broader market has yet to price in, adding another bullish angle to Tom Lee's $2k ETH bottom thesis.
Bottom call faces test as supply outpaces demand
The market is still not fully convinced that Ethereum has found its bottom. On-chain data suggests uncertainty is also showing up in staking demand, which continues to weaken. According to ValidatorQueue, about 1,036,882 ETH (over $2.3 billion) is waiting to enter the Ethereum mainnet validator queue, a considerable drop from 3,737,802 ETH six months ago. This suggests fewer investors are looking to lock up their ETH for staking rewards.
Institutional sentiment also remains negative. Over the past five weeks, there have been continuous outflows from Ethereum ETFs, with $270 million in net outflows recorded in less than a week since November began. If the trend continues, November could see outflows exceed October's $1.6 billion, putting further pressure on ETH and its recovery prospects.
Unless these factors start to improve, calling an Ethereum bottom could be premature. ETH remains exposed to further downside, with long positions building despite fading technicals, weakening interest in staking demand, and increased ETF outflows. A large long-liquidation cluster also exists below $2,200 ETH. If overall sentiment remains weak, ETH could sweep this liquidity, potentially falling below the $2k level before a potential reversal.
This suggests the market may need another round of downside before Tom Lee's bottom thesis gets stronger support.
