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Ethereum (ETH) remained under pressure Thursday amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent inflation concerns, and expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Notably, the crypto asset’s weakness comes as on-chain data points to a sharp decline in whale participation.
According to data from blockchain analytics platform Santiment, shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, large Ethereum transactions have fallen dramatically over the past two weeks.
“Whale activity on the Ethereum network has dropped by 86.6%, falling from 2,194 large transactions on June 5 to just 294 today,” Martinez stated.
The decline represents one of the steepest drops in whale activity seen in recent months and suggests that major holders have become significantly less active on the network.
 
Notably, large transactions are closely monitored by traders because they often provide insight into institutional participation, capital flows, and broader market conviction.
While the slowdown does not automatically signal increased selling pressure, it may indicate that large investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid heightened market uncertainty.
Ethereum’s recent price action has been influenced by a combination of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets and renewed inflationary pressures. The resulting uncertainty has reduced investor appetite for risk assets, contributing to broader weakness across cryptocurrency markets.
Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain higher interest rates for longer. Elevated interest rates tend to reduce market liquidity and can weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
These developments have contributed to rising volatility across Ethereum markets. The Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility Index surged 26% over the past week, highlighting increased uncertainty among traders.
From a technical standpoint, Ethereum continues to face significant challenges.
The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, reinforcing the broader bearish trend. Momentum indicators also paint a mixed picture, with the MACD remaining in a downward trajectory despite the Relative Strength Index entering oversold territory.
Market participants are closely monitoring the $1,500 level, which has emerged as a critical support area.
A successful defense of this zone could help establish a foundation for recovery. However, a decisive break below $1,500 may expose Ethereum to deeper losses, with some analysts identifying $1,000 as the next major psychological support level.
On the upside, ETH would likely need to reclaim the $2,000 mark before attempting a move toward stronger resistance around $2,380.
Despite weakening whale activity and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, several analysts remain optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term outlook.
Analyst Javon Marks shared a weekly ETH/USD chart highlighting historical consolidation ranges and breakout formations dating back to 2016. According to Marks, Ethereum’s current structure continues to demonstrate what he described as “structural integrity” at current price levels.
Based on previous expansion cycles, the analyst projected an initial upside target between $4,800 and $5,000. Beyond that, he believes Ethereum could eventually reach approximately $8,500 if historical market behavior repeats.
Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Patel outlined an even broader roadmap extending into 2029 and 2030.
Patel’s framework presents several potential valuation scenarios. His ultra-bear outlook places Ethereum around $5,000, while a base-case scenario targets approximately $12,000. Under the most aggressive bullish assumptions, the analyst forecasted ETH could eventually trade between $30,000 and $60,000.
The analyst’s projections compared Ethereum’s potential future market capitalization to that of some of the world’s largest corporations, such as Nvidia, suggesting that the asset may increasingly be viewed as a mature global financial network rather than merely a speculative cryptocurrency.
At press time, ETH was trading at $1,700, reflecting a 0.65% drop in the past 24 hours.