Bitcoin has rallied 45% to $87,000 from July's low of $57,800. Despite briefly slipping back to $84,000 this week, Fidelity believes a higher chance exists of hitting $100,000.
Fidelity's Head of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer has projected that Bitcoin could reach as high as $300,000 this cycle, but only after clearing an immediate obstacle. According to Timmer, Bitcoin is close to completing a double bottom pattern—a bullish reversal formation—on weekly charts.
The $82K Threshold
If Bitcoin closes above $82,000, it would confirm the double bottom pattern and clear the path to $100,000. The pattern's technical setup suggests 24% upside potential above $82,000, translating to a $102,000 price target.
The $82,000 level holds particular significance as it doubles as the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitfinex analysts noted that this same level capped the May rally before price fell to $58,500. They expect the level to be defended because buyers who are now in profit tend to defend their cost basis, turning the ceiling into support.
Losing the $82,000 support could open downside risk to $70,000.
Longer-Term Projection
Timmer's $300,000 bullish target for this bull run is based on the Bitcoin Power Law model. This represents a more conservative scenario compared to a $400,000 target projected by the CryptoQuant CEO.
Mining Dynamics
Mining difficulty remains below late-June levels, and miners now earn approximately 25% more per unit of computing power. This increased profitability reduces miner selling pressure, as miners face less need to sell Bitcoin to cover operational costs.
Bitcoin's path forward faces near-term macro pressures, including a potential 0.25% Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Bitcoin bulls must defend the $82,000 level despite these headwinds to reach the $100,000 target.
