Bitcoin, gold and silver are in focus as the US Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting on October 28. The rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM ET.
Markets are pricing in a high probability that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged. According to the source, traders assign a 93.4% chance of a hold and a 6.6% chance of a rate hike.
Inflation and Growth Concerns Shape the Backdrop
Inflation remains a concern, with CPI and PPI data coming in hotter than expected. Rising energy prices are adding to inflation pressure, while weakness in the housing market, high borrowing costs and job cuts point to challenges for the US economy.
That combination leaves the Fed facing a difficult choice. A hawkish message suggesting more rate hikes could put pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies, while a dovish message could support a market rally but may raise concerns about inflation.
The dollar's direction will also depend on Warsh's comments. A stronger dollar could weigh on gold and silver, while a weaker dollar could support their prices.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin could face a short-term correction if selling pressure increases. The technical analysis cited identifies 86,400 as a key level. A break below it could push Bitcoin toward 84,420, with a deeper decline potentially reaching 80,400.
If Bitcoin holds above 86,400, the bullish outlook remains intact. Warsh's comments could influence direction: a dovish tone could support a rally, while signals of further rate hikes could increase selling pressure across the crypto market.
Gold Price Outlook
Gold faces selling pressure, with $4,054–$4,060 acting as a key resistance zone. If gold fails to break above this range, the next downside levels cited are $4,038, $4,029, $4,020 and $4,016.
If buyers defend the $4,029–$4,038 support zone, gold could recover toward $4,054–$4,060. The Fed's policy guidance and the dollar's reaction will be important for gold's next move.
Silver Price Outlook
Silver could decline toward $53.87 and $53.63 if selling continues. If silver recovers, $54.34–$54.41 is the key resistance zone to watch, and selling pressure could return if the price fails to break above this range. If support holds, silver could regain upward momentum.
What to Watch
- The 2:00 PM ET policy statement and the 2:30 PM ET press conference with Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Whether the Fed signals further rate hikes or a more dovish stance.
- The dollar's reaction, which the analysis links to gold and silver direction.
- Bitcoin's ability to hold above the 86,400 level cited in the technical analysis.
