Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, predicts Bitcoin could trade above $100,000 before the end of the year. Bitcoin traded near $86,000 on Monday, meaning such a move would represent a gain of approximately 16% from those levels. Farrell previously targeted $115,000 for the year but now views that level as out of reach.
Farrell argues that rising Treasury yields, typically a headwind for risk assets, could instead catalyze Bitcoin's next major move. He says Bitcoin has established a "durable" cycle low, with a new cycle likely underway.
Treasury Intervention and Monetary Debasement
The 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2007, with markets pricing in four rate hikes over the next 12 months. Farrell frames this environment as bullish for Bitcoin, pointing to three structural factors:
- U.S. debt stands above 120% of GDP, with the fiscal deficit running at 6% to 7% of GDP. Higher rates worsen both metrics.
- A Congressional Budget Office report cited by Farrell shows that a 1 percentage point rise in average interest costs would push the 30-year deficit projection from 9% of GDP to 14%.
- On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced larger buybacks of long-dated Treasuries, funded by issuing short-term bills.
Farrell describes the Treasury's buyback program as market intervention resembling stimulus. Banks absorb the new bills and create money in the private market, which he argues "leads to monetary debasement, and monetary debasement leads to Bitcoin outperformance." He suggests that policymakers have followed this same approach for five to six years.
Tokenization and Broader Demand
Farrell also links the SEC's innovation exemption to increased demand for cryptocurrencies. The exemption requires each tokenized stock to be paired with a stablecoin or money market fund. If trillions of dollars in equities move on-chain, this would create additional demand for short-term bills the government needs to sell.
Farrell noted that Ethereum was the strongest cryptocurrency performer in the third quarter, while Solana continues to trade as a higher-risk play on the same theme.
Market Outlook
Farrell does not expect smooth upside. He said a 10% pullback is possible but that investors without leverage should not be concerned. He expects buyers to step in quickly on any dip and recommends investors "think about getting more aggressive over a medium to longer-term time horizon."
