Researchers at crypto firm Galaxy Digital believe Bitcoin's bear market ended in June, according to an analysis by Alex Thorn, the firm's head of firmwide research.
Thorn identifies several technical indicators supporting this assessment. The 200-week moving average held during the downturn, the 50-week moving average has been regained for five consecutive weeks, and Bitcoin is past the point in its halving cycle where previous cycles have bottomed, occurring on day 916 of the current cycle.
On positioning, Thorn notes that major sellers have largely exited the market. Basis traders and macro investors who held long positions into October 2025 have reduced their ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while other market participants have generally maintained their positions.
Thorn highlights the gap between Bitcoin's current price and its previous all-time high, noting that the cryptocurrency would need a 53% increase to reclaim that level. Equities, by contrast, are trading near record levels.
The researcher points to strengthened fundamentals, citing the likelihood of medium-term currency debasement as governments run large budget deficits at elevated yield levels.
Thorn also observes a shift in market sentiment toward "blockchain, not Bitcoin," describing this as the third occurrence of this narrative pattern since he began covering the market. He notes that the two previous iterations of this sentiment preceded substantial gains for Bitcoin, citing historical examples from 2015–16 and 2018–19.
