Galaxy Digital, a U.S. financial and infrastructure firm, contends that bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase following a bear market bottom in June, according to research from the company's head of firmwide research.
Bitcoin traded around $80,000 at the time of the analysis, representing a 38% gain from June lows below $58,000, though prices remain approximately 35% below the record high of over $126,000 set earlier in the cycle.
Technical Indicators Support Recovery Thesis
Galaxy cited several technical factors supporting its accumulation thesis. Bitcoin recovered above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it, with five consecutive weekly closes above that level. The firm interpreted this as evidence the market had bottomed.
Positioning data also reinforced the outlook. Asset managers' net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of the record high, while major trading firms substantially reduced exchange-traded fund holdings—signals that speculative money had exited the market.
Spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low, suggesting renewed directional demand as arbitrage activity declined.
Macroeconomic Factors
Galaxy identified rising U.S. debt, persistent deficits, and increasing interest costs as factors strengthening bitcoin's appeal as a fixed-supply asset. The firm noted that institutional enthusiasm for alternative crypto assets like stablecoins and tokenization, coupled with fading interest in bitcoin, resembles sentiment observed around previous market lows.
Risk Considerations
Galaxy acknowledged potential challenges to its thesis. A weekly close below $76,540 followed by failure to recover within a month would challenge the firm's technical outlook. The company also noted broader risks including market-wide declines and technological disruption.
