Bitcoin recently posted weekly gains of 25%, coming close to clearing the $80,000 mark following $4 billion in short liquidations and a macro-driven regime shift. The rally successfully reclaimed the key 200-day Moving Average, currently at $69,000, as well as the short-term holder realized cost basis of $68,000.
From a technical standpoint, reclaiming these levels means the short- and mid-term price structure for Bitcoin has flipped bullish. However, market participants remain split on whether the broader bear market has officially concluded.
Mixed Signals on Institutional Participation
Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC trading at market maker Wintermute, noted that the strong weekly performance could not be ignored, but added that there was a lack of "full participation" to definitively signal a true trend reversal and regime shift.
Ostrovskis pointed to several positioning metrics that suggest caution:
- Open interest remains well below year-to-date highs.
- Basis yield is hovering below 5%, down from an average of 10% during the 2024 bull run after collapsing following the October crash.
- Option skew has only recently turned positive, and wings remain inexpensive.
According to Wintermute, the absence of prior levels of institutional participation signals caution rather than an undisputed bullish regime shift. Meanwhile, internet entrepreneur Jason Calaniss characterized the rally as a "dead-cat bounce," and other observers anticipated potential price retests of the $70,000 to $72,000 range ahead of the central banks' Jackson Hole meeting.
Galaxy Research Eyes the 50-Week Moving Average
Despite differing views, analysts at Galaxy Research stated that the end of Bitcoin's bear market could be confirmed if the asset reclaims the $82,000 level, referencing the 50-week Moving Average.
Historical data cited by Galaxy Research indicates that in 11 out of 13 instances where Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week Moving Average during completed bear markets, the bear-market low was already established. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim this level on a weekly close, historical patterns suggest the bear market would likely be over.
Additionally, market data indicates that the Bitcoin 25 Delta Skew fell to zero across 1-week and 1-month tenors, pointing to reduced demand for downside protection via put options and showing that prior market fear has faded significantly.
