Galaxy Research believes bitcoin's bear market concluded in June and the asset has entered an accumulation phase, according to a research alert from the firm. Bitcoin traded near $80,000 at the time of the report, approximately 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30 low.
Technical Indicators
Galaxy's analysis relies on weekly moving averages to identify bear market cycles. The 200-week average has historically acted as a floor during downturns, while the 50-week average has served as a ceiling. Bitcoin fell below the 50-week average in November 2025 and remained there for 44 weeks before closing above it again in September.
The firm examined 13 instances since 2011 when price reclaimed the 50-week average. In the four cases where price had stayed below the line for 20 weeks or more, bitcoin was higher a year later by between 55% and 1,497%. None of those instances closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the following 12 months.
The current drawdown of 53% is the shallowest in bitcoin's history and the first in which price did not fall below the network's realized cost basis, according to the report.
Institutional Positioning
Asset managers' net long position in CME bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of the all-time high, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Galaxy identified several major institutions that reduced spot ETF holdings between September 2025 and June 2026, including Millennium Management, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, and others, which collectively cut holdings by 68,000 BTC.
The front-month basis for the cash-and-carry trade averaged 7.9% annualized in the 30 days before the October high but dropped to 4.8% by October 21, a level the firm said no longer covers the trade's costs and risk.
Spot ETF holdings declined 11% from peak to trough while price fell 53%, but the funds have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, indicating institutional buyers have re-entered the market.
Fundamental Context
Galaxy's fundamental argument centers on U.S. fiscal conditions. Federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% on October 5, its highest level since 2007. The firm argued that government refinancing debt at elevated yields while running large deficits creates inflationary pressure.
Market Sentiment
Galaxy compared the current environment to 2015-16 and 2018-19, periods when mainstream finance focused on blockchain technology while dismissing bitcoin. Both coincided with cycle lows. The firm noted that current market sentiment emphasizes stablecoins and tokenization rather than bitcoin, citing bank pilots of tokenized deposits, a failed Senate cloture vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, and declining Google searches for bitcoin.
Risk Factors
Galaxy identified a key reversal point: a weekly close below the 50-week average, approximately $76,540, that is not regained within a month would invalidate its thesis. The firm acknowledged risks including AI-enabled theft, citing the $387.5 million Bitget exploit, while noting such incidents have not involved the Bitcoin protocol itself. On quantum computing, Galaxy noted that 7.1 million BTC sit in outputs with exposed public keys, though no cryptographically relevant quantum computer currently exists.
