A fresh analysis from Galaxy Research highlights a key technical hurdle for Bitcoin (BTC) that could confirm whether the current bear market has concluded. Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,114, marking a more than 32% increase from its June 30 low. Meanwhile, the 50-week moving average (MA) stands at $82,470, sitting about 6.4% overhead.
Galaxy Research evaluated every completed Bitcoin bear market since 2011 using a strict mechanical rule requiring at least a 50% drawdown lasting 90 days or more. According to the firm, historical data shows that in 11 out of 13 instances when Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average during completed bear markets, the bear-market low was already established. If Bitcoin reclaims this level on a weekly close, historical patterns suggest the bear market would likely be over.
Out of the 13 historical reclaims analyzed, only two failed, both of which occurred during the 2021-2022 cycle before Bitcoin eventually dropped to $15,758. By comparison, the faster 50-day moving average proved significantly noisier, resulting in 43 failures out of 106 reclaims that subsequently led to new lows.
Galaxy Research notes that a weekly reclaim of the 50-week moving average would serve as strong confirmation that the cycle low is in, whereas a daily reclaim remains encouraging but not conclusive.
The analysis also points out that even successful 50-week signals can experience short-term whipsaws, though Bitcoin has historically never printed a new bear-market low following those events. For instance, the May 2019 reclaim experienced crossings around the COVID-19 crash, but Bitcoin never breached the previous 2017–2018 bear-market low. Similarly, the May 2020 reclaim held successfully for 427 days.
