A Galaxy Research study of 2.9 million retail trading accounts on Polymarket found that more than 69% finished below break-even, with aggregate losses reaching $338.9 million. The analysis examined the platform's full on-chain history, including positions, entry prices, holding periods, and payouts.
Galaxy excluded 125,429 accounts averaging more than 50 orders per active trading day, classifying them as likely automated. These automated accounts represented just 4.1% of wallets but accounted for 80.8% of all orders.
Loss Patterns and Trader Behavior
Among retail traders, the median account lost approximately $3, suggesting most losses were modest while a smaller cohort experienced losses in the thousands. The research found a connection between losses and reduced platform engagement: about 15.2% of accounts stopped trading within 30 days following a loss, compared with 6.1% after a win.
Both winning and losing traders typically returned with slightly smaller positions, though traders reduced risk less aggressively after wins.
Specialization and Performance
Around 44% of traders concentrated more than 60% of their activity on a single topic. Specialists proved slightly less profitable than generalists, with only 28% of specialists finishing profitably versus 30.4% of generalists.
Sports specialists showed the lowest profitability rate among major categories. Tech and science specialists performed better, with 41.2% finishing profitably. Galaxy noted this difference could reflect stronger subject knowledge, though the data cannot establish causation.
Trading Patterns Among Profitable Traders
Profitable traders tended to make larger individual bets and trade more frequently. Holding time showed no clear relationship with profitability. The study covered Polymarket's international platform rather than its separate US exchange.
Galaxy noted a methodological limitation: the analysis tracks wallet addresses rather than individual people, so traders using multiple wallets could appear as separate accounts in the data.
