Real estate investor Grant Cardone has proposed a $1 million wager with venture capitalist Jason Calacanis over Bitcoin's price trajectory, offering to bet that Bitcoin will reach at least $126,210.50 by October 28, 2028.
The challenge follows Calacanis' October 27 prediction that Bitcoin will decline toward $57,000 within 12 months and never surpass its previous all-time high. Calacanis also suggested investors shift focus toward artificial intelligence rather than Bitcoin.
Cardone responded the next day with his counterproposal, setting a target slightly higher than Bitcoin's October 2025 record of approximately $126,080. He suggested placing funds with an independent third party to ensure payment to the winner. Calacanis has not publicly accepted the terms.
Why Calacanis Expects Bitcoin to Fall
Calacanis based his bearish outlook on declining investor enthusiasm and capital movement away from Bitcoin. He cited withdrawals from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as evidence of potential weakening demand, pointing to competition from other technologies like artificial intelligence for investor capital.
Bitcoin experienced difficult market conditions during the period discussed, and declining institutional demand can place pressure on prices, though ETF outflows do not necessarily indicate that all investor categories are abandoning the market.
Other Investors Join the Debate
Multiple Bitcoin supporters have proposed similar wagers with Calacanis. Bitcoin advocate Fred Krueger offered another $1 million bet with a deadline extending to October 2036. Hollywood producer Terence Michael also expressed interest in participating, while JAN3 CEO Samson Mow and Blockstream CEO Adam Back indicated support for Cardone's challenge.
These responses demonstrate significant disagreement among investors about Bitcoin's future direction, with some viewing recent declines as temporary corrections while others question whether Bitcoin can regain previous momentum.
Competing Price Projections
Investment manager Bitwise issued a more optimistic forecast in its October 28 outlook, projecting a Bitcoin price of approximately $1.6 million by 2036, representing an estimated compound annual growth rate of 34.3%. Bitwise cited institutional adoption growth, limited Bitcoin supply, and demand for purchasing-power-preserving assets as supporting factors.
However, Bitwise also identified significant risks, including quantum computing, technological disruption, and unfavorable regulatory changes. The company's ten-year projection operates on a different time horizon than Cardone's two-year wager.
What a 2028 Rally Would Require
At the time Cardone issued his challenge, Bitcoin was trading near $80,847, approximately 36% below its previous peak. Reaching Cardone's target would require a gain of roughly 56% from that level—a substantial recovery, though Bitcoin has experienced larger percentage moves during previous market cycles.
Institutional investment, ETF demand, economic conditions, and regulatory developments could all influence the outcome over the next two years.
