Hyperliquid (HYPE) has lost 15% over the past month, falling harder than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, despite ranking as the most bullish cryptocurrency among analysts tracked by CryptoQuant.
HYPE traded at $76.55 on Sunday, approximately 22% below its September 23 peak of $97.96. The token has a market value of roughly $17 billion.
Performance Gap Widens
Over the same 30-day period, Bitcoin remained flat while Ethereum and Solana each lost about 9%. Several factors have weighed on HYPE specifically.
On October 6, Hyperliquid's team received a scheduled payout of 3.75 million HYPE, then valued at approximately $340 million. A co-founder stated the tokens would be sold off-exchange to a single institutional buyer, though neither the buyer's identity nor the transaction price was disclosed.
This payout exceeded the $71 million that Hyperliquid generated for token buybacks over the same 30-day period, according to DefiLlama data. The platform routes approximately 99% of trading fees from its crypto futures venue into daily HYPE purchases, per CoinShares.
Liquidations have added pressure. Traders using leverage lost $688.56 million to forced closures in a single day this month.
Analyst Sentiment Remains Bullish
CryptoQuant's sentiment analysis ranks HYPE at 2.3 standard deviations above its normal bullish baseline, the highest among major cryptocurrencies. BNB, Solana, Bitcoin, and Cardano followed in the ranking.
Among tracked analysts, 90% are bullish on HYPE. The leading price target on CryptoQuant's chart ranges from $100 to $120.
This contrasts with HYPE's previous pullback, from approximately $75 in early June to near $52 in August, when analyst sentiment turned bearish. This time, bullish sentiment has persisted through the recent decline.
Key Support Level Tests
Two metrics now test the bull thesis. The first is whether daily buybacks can offset selling pressure. The second is support at $75.14, identified in recent analysis. HYPE currently trades less than $1.50 above this level.
