Internet Computer (ICP) remains stuck near its 2026 lows, trading around $2.39 after spending much of the year confined within a narrow $2.01 to $2.85 range. Although the broader cryptocurrency market has experienced a recovery, ICP has stayed below its weekly 20-exponential moving average, keeping its broader trend bearish.
Buyers have yet to generate enough momentum to clear the $2.85 resistance level. Analysts note that until a sustained break above $2.85 occurs, calling the current movement a trend reversal is premature. A successful breakout could shift focus toward the weekly 50-EMA near $3.15. Further continuation could potentially target $6.29, or approximately $9.84 if the token reaches the weekly 200-EMA, though these bullish scenarios depend heavily on renewed market demand.
Beneath the price action, address distribution data reveals a divided market among different holder cohorts. Accumulation is visible among smaller participants, with both the 0.001 to 10 ICP cohort and the 10 to 10,000 ICP group increasing.
However, larger holders are not moving in unison. The 10,000 to 100,000 ICP cohort has declined since its early-August high, indicating persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, the 100,000 to 1 million ICP group began rising in August following a significant decline, whereas the 1 million to 10 million ICP cohort has continued falling from its mid-June peak.
This tug-of-war helps explain why ICP has struggled to respond strongly despite improving broader market sentiment. While smaller holders accumulate, larger cohorts reducing their exposure have countered potential buying pressure. For ICP to break out of its current range, a catalyst capable of shifting this balance is required, leaving $2.85 as the key threshold separating a potential reversal from the risk of revisiting support near $2.01.
