Silicon Valley investor Jason Calacanis, who three years ago told crypto founders to abandon their industry for AI stocks, now predicts Bitcoin will crash to $57,000 within 12 months—nearly 29% below its $79,774 price at the time of his call on Tuesday. He also claimed Bitcoin would never reach another all-time high.
“A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started,” Calacanis wrote.
A mixed track record
Calacanis has a reputation for spotting technology trends early. He backed Uber and Robinhood before they became household names and co-hosts the influential All-In podcast. His June 2023 advice to “pivot to AI” proved well-timed: a $10,000 investment in Nvidia that day would now be worth approximately $56,100, while Bitcoin would have returned around $30,100.
Yet his record deserves context. Semiconductor stocks broadly performed similarly to Bitcoin over that period, and Calacanis also recommended buying Bitcoin directly in September 2025.
Market signals and counterpoints
Calacanis argues that Bitcoin is losing investor interest while AI offers greater economic value. “Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence,” he said, describing Bitcoin as a “dead network.”
There are reasons for concern. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 37% from its October 2025 peak near $126,200. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost approximately $773 million on October 22–23, and Glassnode estimates these funds purchased their holdings at an average price near $81,500, leaving them under pressure at current levels. However, ETF inflows recovered by approximately $110 million on October 26, and the data has yet to establish sustained institutional selling.
The performance gap is striking: over the past year, semiconductor stocks gained roughly 62% while Bitcoin lost 30%. Yet Bitcoin remains positively correlated with technology stocks. Its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq stood at 0.38 through October 25, suggesting both can fall when investors retreat from risk. Even Calacanis’s own AI-linked cryptocurrency investment, Bittensor (TAO), has fallen approximately 40% over the past year.
Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn believes Bitcoin bottomed in June and could recover toward $125,000 as long-term selling eases. His bullish outlook would weaken if Bitcoin stayed below roughly $76,540. That makes the coming weeks critical for judging whether Calacanis’s crash prediction has substance.
