JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have identified a hedging dynamic that could favor Bitcoin over gold in the near term. The analysis, reported by Walter Bloomberg, points to diverging recovery patterns between the two assets following inflows triggered by Federal Reserve policy concerns in late July.
Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs experienced significant inflows after the Fed meeting, driven by investor concerns about US fiscal policy and quantitative easing. However, the recovery trajectories have differed: gold ETFs have recovered most of their outflows during the year, while Bitcoin has recovered only half of its own outflows.
Hedging Positioning Suggests Bitcoin Upside
The JPMorgan team highlights several metrics indicating elevated hedging demand around Bitcoin. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) carries the highest short-interest levels of 2026, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF maintains short interest around 3.5%, well below historical averages.
In the derivatives market, the put-to-call open interest ratio for IBIT exceeds that of gold's GLD, meaning investors are buying more downside protection in Bitcoin than in gold. This contrast suggests Bitcoin faces more skeptical investor positioning than gold, despite recent inflows.
Potential Catalyst for Rally
According to the JPMorgan analysis, this elevated hedging around Bitcoin could become a strength if conditions shift. As Bitcoin prices stabilize and investor caution diminishes, reduced hedging demand could support the cryptocurrency's performance relative to gold.
"From a positioning point of view, the more elevated short interest in the IBIT vs. GLD ETF could create more support for bitcoin vs. gold from here if hedging demand is reduced," the report concluded.
