A single recurring trade size dominated Kalshi's ether perpetual-futures market during a recent four-day period, according to data analysis. Trades valued near $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million in ether-perpetual transactions analyzed from September 17 through September 20.
On the bitcoin side, two recurring trade sizes worth approximately $2,500 and $5,000 combined for 54% of the $8.5 million sampled over the same period.
Pattern Suggests Automated Trading
The repetitive nature of these trades suggests automated execution. The dollar values remained nearly fixed while the number of contracts changed as prices moved—a pattern consistent with algorithmic trading programs executing predetermined dollar amounts, known among traders as 'clips.'
Analysis of earlier data showed the pattern extended back months. In 43 of 46 one-hour samples examined between June 19 and September 20, ether trades repeatedly clustered around specific dollar targets. The recurring trade size accounted for about 45% of the value across those samples and more than half on 15 dates.
The target dollar amount itself changed over time, shifting from roughly $4,999 in early samples to $9,999 on June 28, then to $3,999, $4,499, and finally $5,499 by late August.
Bitcoin Trades Show Similar Mechanics
Bitcoin perpetual trades exhibited a parallel pattern. Two recurring trade sizes moved in lockstep as bitcoin's price changed, with the larger trade staying almost exactly twice the size of the smaller one. In 9 of 22 samples containing both sizes, the larger was precisely double the smaller. In the remaining 13, the larger was just one contract above double, a difference consistent with rounding adjustments.
Volume-to-Interest Ratio Stands Out
Kalshi's ether perpetual showed unusually heavy trading relative to open positions. A Monday snapshot showed approximately 93 million contracts of 24-hour volume against 1.5 million of open interest, producing a volume-to-open-interest ratio of 61. This was the second-highest among 20 Kalshi perpetual markets examined, compared with a median ratio of about eight. The bitcoin contract's ratio was 26.
Exchange Response and Timeline Questions
Kalshi did not respond to inquiries about whether one or several participants produced the repeating trade sizes, whether any were covered by market-making arrangements, or whether the exchange had found self-matching among accounts.
A rebate program taking effect on September 16 reduced fees to 0.003% for certain firms and paid market makers a matching rebate. However, the program began after the recurring $5,499 trades first appeared, suggesting it does not explain their emergence, though it could affect trading economics during later periods.
Industry Context
Kalshi is a U.S. derivatives exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, best known for its prediction markets. It added bitcoin perpetual futures in late May and ether perpetual futures shortly thereafter.
Volume metrics are typically used by traders to assess market activity and liquidity. Understanding the composition of that volume—specifically, how many distinct participants generate reported activity—is important for evaluating what the figures actually represent.
