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Kalshi Sets Back-to-Back Daily Volume Records Fueled by Parlay Trading

The prediction market platform reached $3.91 billion in notional volume on Saturday and $3.96 billion on Sunday, with parlay-style combo contracts accounting for roughly 70% of both days' trading activity.
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Kalshi Sets Back-to-Back Daily Volume Records Fueled by Parlay Trading

Kalshi set consecutive daily volume records over the weekend, reaching $3.91 billion on Saturday, October 10, and $3.96 billion on Sunday, October 11. Both figures exceeded the platform's previous single-day high of $3.68 billion, set on October 4.

Parlay-style combo contracts drove the surge, representing 71.6% of Saturday's volume and 69.4% of Sunday's. These multi-outcome bundled contracts accounted for $2.80 billion on Saturday and $2.75 billion on Sunday.

A significant portion of combo volume consisted of long-shot parlays priced below 1 cent. Approximately 1.9 billion of Saturday's 2.8 billion combo contracts and 1.6 billion of Sunday's 2.75 billion traded at prices where the Yes side never reached 1 cent or higher that day. These sub-cent trades alone represented about three-quarters of Saturday's week-over-week increase and 86% of Sunday's increase.

The weekend's trading volumes were approximately 61% above comparable days during the NFL's opening weekend in late September, when Kalshi recorded consecutive daily records below $2.5 billion each. Kalshi has now exceeded $3 billion in daily volume on seven days since September 19.

Beyond combo contracts, college football markets traded $428 million on Saturday, while NFL markets accounted for $17 million on that day when no games were played. On Sunday, NFL markets generated $572 million, up 18% from the previous week, and college football $21 million. Kalshi's 15-minute bitcoin markets traded $229 million on Saturday and $234 million on Sunday, making them the most-traded non-combo series after traditional game markets.

In a separate development, Kalshi notified the CFTC on September 28 that it would end its Volume Incentive Program no earlier than October 13, accelerating its termination by nearly a year from the originally scheduled October 1, 2027. The program provides traders a share of per-market rewards capped at half a cent per contract. For event contracts, only order-book trades at prices between 3 and 97 cents qualify for the incentive, excluding the sub-cent combo contracts that comprised most of the weekend's growth.

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