Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company, cut its 2026 revenue forecast by 59% on November 13, reducing the target to ¥6.5 billion from ¥16 billion. Operating profit guidance fell 74%, to ¥3 billion from ¥11.4 billion.
The company's stock fell 4.37% to ¥219 that day and has declined 53.21% so far in 2026.
How Stock Valuation Derailed Growth Plans
Metaplanet's original targets assumed the company could continue raising capital at its late-2025 pace to purchase Bitcoin and expand its options-based Bitcoin income business. That strategy stalled when the company's market cap fell below its Bitcoin holdings—a metric known as mNAV, or market net asset value.
When mNAV drops below 1x, issuing new shares would dilute Bitcoin ownership per share. To avoid this, Metaplanet halted share sales. Bitcoin purchases and income business volume both fell short of plan as a result.
A ¥52 billion convertible bond issued in October offers limited relief. Metaplanet will direct those proceeds toward share buybacks first, leaving constrained funds for new Bitcoin acquisitions or business growth.
Additional cost pressures arrive in the fourth quarter from the consolidation of Metaplanet Securities and goodwill amortization from that acquisition.
The Numbers Behind the Revised Outlook
Nine-month results showed revenue grew 30.5% to ¥5.9 billion, with operating profit rising 26.5% to ¥3.5 billion. However, Bitcoin valuation losses and a third-quarter Bitcoin sale resulted in a ¥27.2 billion net loss.
The revised full-year revenue target implies only about ¥600 million in fourth-quarter revenue, compared to an average of nearly ¥2 billion per quarter through September. Operating profit already exceeds the ¥3 billion full-year goal, suggesting a fourth-quarter operating loss.
The ¥6.5 billion target also sits 27% below 2025 revenue of ¥8.9 billion. The original forecast, set in February, had implied approximately 80% growth.
Additional Headwinds Ahead
On November 30, MSCI will remove Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index and from its USA Index, following index removal rules for Bitcoin treasuries. Funds tracking those benchmarks will need to sell their holdings, creating further selling pressure.
Metaplanet said its Bitcoin-centered strategy remains unchanged. However, the growth model depended on selling stock priced above the Bitcoin backing it. With mNAV below 1x, that funding avenue has narrowed and buybacks now take priority. A sustained recovery of mNAV above 1x would reopen equity funding options and alter this dynamic.
