Investor Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has suggested that US stocks could reach a major peak within the next nine months. According to a report by 24/7 Wall St., Burry has consolidated nearly all of his bearish exposure into put options targeting the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).
Burry disclosed these positions on his Cassandra Unchained Substack. A put option gives the buyer the right to sell an underlying asset at a specified strike price by a designated expiration date, with its value increasing when the market price of the asset falls below the strike price.
His Nasdaq-100 puts are set to expire in April 2027, and his semiconductor ETF puts expire in June 2027. Burry stated that he is maintaining his longer-dated puts on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Oracle (ORCL) while closing out his other bearish positions. He previously closed his December 2026 Nvidia puts due to time decay.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has risen over 67% for the year, driven by companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and AMD (AMD), which collectively represent 34.5% of the ETF's holdings. In 2026, AMD has gained over 170%, TSM has risen 43%, and Nvidia has climbed 20%.
A timeframe of nine months from October extends to July 2027, which falls past both sets of option expiration dates, indicating that a late peak could align with Burry's forecast but potentially arrive after his contracts expire. The report noted that Burry did not disclose the sizes of his positions or the premiums paid, leaving the overall scale of his bearish bet unclear.
