Microstrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed accumulator of bitcoin, is on the verge of confirming a golden cross, a technical signal that some traders interpret as a shift toward bullish momentum. The signal occurs when a security's 50-day average price rises above its 200-day average, and for MSTR it could materialize as soon as Monday.
The company holds $69.81 billion in bitcoin on its balance sheet. Bitcoin itself confirmed a golden cross on September 8, and has since risen nearly 5% to around $82,000.
Historical Performance of MSTR Golden Crosses
Since Microstrategy began accumulating bitcoin for its balance sheet in August 2020, the stock has experienced two previous golden crosses, each followed by substantial gains.
The first golden cross occurred on September 15, 2020, when MSTR traded at approximately $15.57. The stock climbed to $127.29 by February 2021, representing a gain of 717%. A death cross—the opposite signal—arrived in January 2022, at which point the stock was valued at $46.83, still triple its price on the day of the bullish signal.
The second golden cross appeared on March 2, 2023, at $25.29 per share. MSTR peaked at $473.83 in November 2024, up 1,774% from that signal date. When the subsequent death cross occurred in October 2025, the stock was trading at $328.40, still 1,199% higher than at the time of the golden cross.
Signal Reliability Remains Limited
However, the historical track record of golden crosses as a reliable predictor is mixed. Since 1999, MSTR has registered 19 golden crosses. Of these, the stock was higher three months later on 11 occasions, and higher 12 months later on only 10 occasions—a 50% accuracy rate.
The median 12-month return following a golden cross was just 3.3%. The two worst instances, in 2001 and 2007, were each followed by a 61% loss.
