Bitcoin traded near $78,300 on September 8, down 1.52% over 24 hours, as oil prices spiked following reported disruptions to Saudi energy facilities. Brent crude futures touched $99.46 a barrel, with spot prices reaching $101 intraday, after operations halted at some Saudi facilities on Tuesday following attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement.
The timing of the energy disruption creates a gap in the inflation picture facing the Federal Reserve. Friday's Consumer Price Index, scheduled for September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, measures August prices and cannot reflect the September 8 energy shock. September's CPI is not scheduled until October 14, leaving the Fed's September 15-16 meeting to proceed with data from before the latest disruption.
The inflation backdrop heading into that meeting remains mixed. July CPI rose 0.1% over the month and 3.4% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Meanwhile, the labor market showed 162,000 additional jobs in August and unemployment of 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on September 3 that continued disinflation would incline him to support holding rates, while elevated August inflation could lead him to consider a hike. He also identified renewed energy-price increases as an upside inflation risk, though he noted that earlier concerns about energy costs spreading more broadly through goods and services had not materialized so far.
For Bitcoin's price trajectory, the key question is whether August inflation data arrives softer while crude prices retreat, or whether persistent expensive oil complicates the case for the Fed to hold rates steady.
