Options trading activity has rebounded to levels not seen since 2021, with daily volumes on individual stocks reaching approximately $700 billion in underlying share value. That earlier period coincided with Bitcoin's significant price appreciation, raising questions about whether similar conditions could drive comparable gains in cryptocurrency markets.
The 2021 Options and Bitcoin Surge
In 2021, Bitcoin more than doubled, rising from roughly $29,000 at the end of 2020 to an April record near $65,000. This period followed a post-Covid wave of new retail traders entering derivatives markets, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.
Retail sentiment indicators now show comparable levels to 2021. The American Association of Individual Investors reports that 40.3% of surveyed investors expect higher stock prices within six months.
Diverging Paths in Current Markets
Despite elevated retail sentiment, Bitcoin's current price action sits just under $84,000, and cryptocurrency spot ETFs have experienced recent outflows. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $65.40 million in net outflows on October 12, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled only about $232 million over 13 sessions through October 9.
Ethereum spot ETFs have faced additional pressure, losing $85.39 million and extending an outflow streak to 10 consecutive days.
Structural Differences in Current Retail Activity
Analysts note that 2026 retail flows are concentrating in a limited number of stocks rather than spreading broadly across markets. Cautious investors have continued favoring equities, with dividend-focused ETFs ranking among top purchases by Charles Schwab clients in September.
Historically, retail trading has tended to rebound in October following summer slowdowns. Whether cryptocurrency funds capture any portion of that seasonal flow remains uncertain and could influence whether Bitcoin replicates its 2021 performance.
